Back to square one?

The UK is out of recession. That’s alright then. Onward and upward.Really?

If the past 18 months had been a military campaign there would be a debriefing or maybe a (whitewash) inquiry similar to the Iraq one going on at the moment. Have the banks learned anything. Have we? We all collectively still owe a galactic sized chunk of debt, right?

Obviously a fraction of a percent growth does not an end to recession make and whilst I take no pleasure in adopting a glass half empty viewpoint (no really) on the situation it would surely be worth a cautionary dose of realism to speculate that any recovery may take at least a couple of years. Paying off the debt may take a generation.

But if we haven’t leaned collectively from what got us into this recession then we’ll ll make the same mistakes again. Won’t we?

Picture by \/entolin under this creative commons license

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3 thoughts on “Back to square one?

  1. I am no economist, and thus my comments are but patchy understanding, however I find it odd to say that the UK is out of a recession. Given that we have just gone through Christmas I would be surprised if UK spending hadn’t gone higher than normal in the run up to the national shopping holiday. Shouldn’t it require a few months of steady growth to indicate things are getting better, not a one off growth of 0.1% ?

    • Too true Adam. As a recession is signaled by 3 successive quarters with no or negative growth surely any recovery should be akin to the opposite of that not just playing around with GDP stats.Plenty of time yet for a double dip or a very very slow but painful recovery. I still fail to see what lessons have been learned. Boom and bust forever? Or just no more boom?

  2. Some of the interviews and phone-ins I listened to on the radio today on this subject had me stamping my feet and waving my arms around and swearing (not great considering I was painting a door at the time). The only positive thing is that we appear to be arresting the downward trend. It is hardly a recovery. It could quite easily be negative growth over the next quarter but then of course we have to wait for two more quarters presumably before it is officially recession again all because we had this minute growth now.

    I hope it does mark the end but I am not going to count my chickens or bridges or whatever it is just yet.

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